stick to the plan bro

have you heard of that game show, Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

the rules are simple:

1. contestants have 15 questions to answer

2. each question is harder than the last

3. with each correct answer, the cash prize goes up (max. prize = $1M)

4. contestants can choose to “walk away” at any point and keep their current prize

5. if a contestant answers any question wrong, the game ends & they lose everything

i find it super interesting, because the whole concept of the show relies on 1 thing:

people are really bad at understanding risk & reward.

if every contestant went on the show, answered the first easy question, & decided to walk away with a free $100, the show wouldn’t work.

but nobody does that.

instead, people see the massive potential in front of them — a $1M cash prize — & all of a sudden, that ‘free $100’ looks worthless.

there’s a big lesson here.

we focus on the $1M prize, but we forget about what it takes to get there.

in business, there’s a concept called ‘risk-adjusted returns’ (RAR).

it measures how much you have to lose (risk) vs how much you have to gain (reward) in any situation.

so like, if you looked at the RAR of skydiving, it would be:

• risk = literally dying

• reward = adrenaline rush, telling people you went skydiving

• RAR = extremely high risk, low reward —> not worth doing

simply put, RAR is a good way of answering the question, ‘what should i do?’ as logically as possible.

that’s why it’s used all the time in business, investing, & basically anywhere that decisions are directly tied with outcomes.

so let me ask you a question:

on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, which stage would have the highest RAR?

to get the correct answer, it’s about more than just how much money you could win vs how much money you could lose.

there’s a hidden third variable:

it depends on how much harder each stage gets.

if each question got harder in a predictable way (ex. Q1 = grade 1 math, Q2 = grade 2 math, etc.), you could be confident in how much you’re risking vs the potential reward.

but life doesn’t work that way.

generally, people only see how much they have to gain, or how much they have to lose.

very few people see both at the same time.

even fewer people see the hidden third variable — how much harder it gets.

the thing nobody tells you is that ‘how much harder it gets’ is the silent killer.

most people quit not because the goal is impossible, but because shit gets really hard right before the breakthrough.

if you’ve ever lifted weights before, you know that the last reps are the hardest.

they’re also the ones that matter most.

but it’s in those exact moments, when you’re working harder than ever & still not getting rewarded for it, that your brain panics and whispers to you,

“this isn’t good enough, let’s try something else.”

on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, the thing that isn’t good enough is the cash prize (if it’s not the $1M).

in real life, the thing that isn’t good enough is how hard it feels vs how rewarding it is.

both result in the same thing:

changing plans.

it might feel logical in the moment, but mathematically, it destroys your RAR, because you’re abandoning the path right before the compounding kicks in.

but here’s the truth:

no matter what plan you choose, there will always be risk.

there will always be hard shit to deal with.

there will always be doubt.

that’s just the cost of becoming great.

but it’s those moments — as the risk & hard shit & doubt start pulling you away from your goals — when it’s most important to stick to the fucking plan.

i think that’s what separates the winners from the losers in life.

we focus on the $1M prize, but we forget about what it takes to get there.

stick to the plan bro.

some things i learned

1. a helpful reframe from Tim Ferriss
   instead of asking yourself, “why can’t i get started?” start asking “what am i so afraid will be true about me if i actually try?”

2. i think sports betting is just generally a shitty thing
   according to this paper from UCLA, personal bankruptcies jump 28% in states where it’s legal. couple that with the fact that gambling has some of the highest suicide rates of any addiction (est. = 1 in 5 people), & it’s clear to me that any form of gambling is just a pretty bad idea.

3. big tech companies basically lied about $170B of profits
   i read this article, which goes through public filings from companies like Microsoft, Google, Oracle, & Amazon to show that they’ve quietly been using some shady tactics to inflate their profits. if you care about the stock market at all, you’ll know there’s been a lot of talk about a so-called ‘AI bubble’ that’s about to burst. this adds more fuel to that flame.

cool stuff i found

1. the best personality test ever
   this is a free personality test that shows you your results for all of the biggest, most accurate & common tests. if you want to feel called out, put your results into AI & ask it, ‘what are some harsh truths i might not realize about myself?’
   
   here are my results, if you’re curious:

   

2. a really cool looking coffee shop in Prague
   it’s called (A)VOID CAFE, & i think it has the coolest entrance of any business i’ve ever seen. take a look:

   

   that big glass circle is the door — it just tilts open. pretty cool, eh?

3. an edited version of a song i can’t stop listening to
   i’ve liked the song Would That I by Hozier since i heard it for the first time. but for me, the high-energy chorus doesn’t really match the vibes of the rest of it. luckily, somebody else thought so too, & they made an edited version that’s just the softer parts. i have it playing as i write this lol.

bonus: i made something for you!

this week, i went through every book i’ve ever read & chose the very best for my list of 10 books that changed my life!

it’s my first ever ‘lead magnet,’ which is basically something free & useful that i can give to people in exchange for their emails.

i think you’re gonna love it.

get it here

(btw, it’ll still ask you to put in your email, but dw i won’t double up anything)

anyways, that’s all for this week!

i’ve strayed too far from my goal of sending this newsletter on Mondays/Tuesdays, so i’m gonna be more strict about it from now on.

see you soon — go make yourself proud this week.

~ liam (:

PS - this ‘stick to the plan’ email is probably the most blatant example of how everything i post is a note to self. i hope it still helps you as much as it helps me.